Italy’s World Cup Hopes Begin At The Back

It is very difficult, if not downright foolish, to predict how a team will perform at a major tournament like the World Cup in the immediate aftermath of qualification. But such is the assignment with which I have been tasked.

As such, let me say that I do believe the defending world champions of Italy have the talent to win the World Cup again (and certainly as compared to other teams.) However, I don’t think Lippi‘s squad will do so given two key historical facts:

First, it is very difficult to repeat, especially in the current era. Italy accomplished the feat in ’34 and ’38, while Brazil repeated in ’58 and ’62, but no one has achieved it since. Second, Italy has never won a World Cup outside of Europe - although it did reach the final in Mexico in ’70 and the U.S. ’94, only to lose to Brazil on both occasions.

That being said, the Azzurris‘ success will hinge on four factors.

Buffon’s Health

While Fabio Cannavaro undoubtedly led Italy to glory in 2006 through his skill and leadership on the field, let’s not forget that goalkeeper Gigi Buffon allowed only two balls past him during the whole tournament: an own goal off Christian Zaccardo in the group stage against the U.S. and a penalty kick that barely crossed the goal line in the final against France.

Buffon was an impenetrable fortress during the 2006 tournament – as he has been for 99% of his career.  But in 2010 he will be four years older (yes, I understand that Dino Zoff was 40 in ’82) and more importantly, he has accumulated several injuries since ’06. That includes a knee injury that will require surgery at the end of this calendar year, the recovery from which no doubt will extend into the early spring of next year.  Should Buffon not be at the top of his game health-wise, Italy will have to rely on its defenders even more so than it did in Germany.

Defensive Dominance

Italy ‘s defence was just magnificent in 2006. Fans knew that if the team could not score a goal until injury time or extra time, its defence would no doubt hold the line and not allow opponents to score either. Today, while still one of the best defensive units in the world, Italy‘s back four cannot realistically be expected to be so frugal. Cannavaro is older; Zambrotta is not the same player he was in Germany; Grosso cannot be expected to re-create the clutch magic he provided in 2006; and Materazzi is gone.

Giorgio Chiellini‘s arrival helps immensely (he will be a force for years to come and likely be better than Materazzi.) And if Cannavaro is half the player he was in 2006, then the Italians should be alright in the middle defensively. But then what?  Inter Milan’s Davide Santon shows much promise and likely will join Chiellini as the wave of the future. But he may be too inexperienced to provide a real impact next year. While it helps that three of Italy‘s four defensive starters, and the keeper, all play for the same club, Juventus (Zambrotta is the lone player out at Milan), a lot of questions asked during last summer’s Confederations Cup remain unanswered, especially when considered alongside Buffon‘s health.

Whisper it, Buffon and Cannavaro hold the key for Italy

Check out tomorrow’s installment for the third and fourth factors that will be crucial to Italy‘s success in South Africa.

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We at Footy Factor would like to thank Jerry Russo from NYC for submitting this article.