Will Goal Difference Decide the Title Race?

As we head into the final stretch of the Premier League season, we are witnessing the closest title race in years. Just two points separate Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea, who’ve been playing a game of musical chairs with the top spot. Where will each club land when the music finally stops? There’s a good chance that this year’s title might be decided on goal difference – something that hasn’t happened since 1989 (a fact that Arsenal fans and Nick Hornby readers alike will eagerly volunteer.)

As it stands now, Manchester United has the league’s greatest goal difference (43), with Chelsea (39) and Arsenal (37) following closely behind. These totals have such a small discrepancy that a single score (especially a lop-sided one) could make all the difference.  It means that every game from here on out could be a title decider – and every club will want to be strong at the back and on fire up front.

Here are some of the factors to keep an eye on:

Goalkeepers: Believe it or not, all three teams have headaches between the posts.  Arsenal’s Manuel Alumnia couldn’t hold onto a beach ball if it was delicately handed to him. Edwin van der Sar has only played 12 league matches this season, and Manchester United don’t have much of a Plan B if he goes down again. Meanwhile, Chelsea are now onto their second-choice goalkeeper, Henrique Hilario, after Petr Cech picked up an injury in Milan.

Strikeforces: Again, it’s hard to see any daylight between them. Player-of-the-season Wayne Rooney has picked up where Cristiano Ronaldo left off and seems to be banging them in for fun these days. Chelsea have a trio of goal scorers – Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka and Frank Lampard – who can raise their game when the others’ go cold. And even though Arsenal’s top scorer, Cesc Fabregas, is battling an injury, the club’s talented center forward, Robin Van Persie, is set to return after a long layoff.

Manchester United v Chelsea: The only instance where two of the three leaders go head-to-head each other occurs April 3^rd, when the Blues visit Old Trafford. If either team is significantly trailing the other in goal difference, then this will be a golden opportunity for them to make up a lot of ground. (Of course, it’ll also be a chance for the other team to distance themselves from the pack.)

Schedule: At first glance, Chelsea appears to have a tougher schedule than either Arsenal or Manchester United. They have a game in hand – and they also have an FA Cup semi-final to play, which could weigh heavily on a relatively old team that’s already struggling with injuries. However, the picture becomes a little more muddied if you do a little bit of statistical analysis on the clubs that each team still has to play. On average (see table), the teams that Manchester United must play score more goals than they let in. That’s not the case for Chelsea, and it’s certainly not the case for Arsenal, who play the league’s most porous defence in Hull.

Can Gunners fans dream of Michael Thomas again? We’ll see…