Italy in Danger of Losing Its Fourth Champions League Spot

It would be a slap in the face for a country that just 10 years ago was the undisputed king of European club football and fewer than four years ago captured the World Cup. But it’s true. After Tuesday’s humbling of Fiorentina at the hands of Bayern Munich, Serie A is now in danger of losing its fourth Champions League spot to the Bundesliga.

How did this happen?

The method of awarding Champions League spots is a convoluted system revolving around UEFA’s so-called “coefficient rankings.” The coefficient for each league is determined by how well its clubs have performed in the Champions League and Europa League over the past five seasons. The top three European leagues in UEFA’s rankings get to the send three representatives directly into the Champions League, and a fourth team into the final round of qualifying. The fourth- through sixth-placed teams are awarded two direct entries and one into qualifying.

England leads this season’s rankings with 77.7 points, followed by Spain with 76 and Italy with 61.9. Germany is close on its heels with 60.2 points. But Fiorentina’s capitulation to Bayern Munich may have finally swung the balance of power in Germany’s favour. Apart from AC Milan’s forays into the latter reaches of the Champions League, Italy’s performance in European club competitions has been pretty dismal of late. In the UEFA Cup, only Udinese made it past the first knockout round last year. The year before that, only Fiorentina could make it that far. Three years ago, the Italians did slightly better in the group phase with Livorno and Parma progressing but both were eliminated in the Round of 32.

The Bundesliga, on the other hand, has consistently provides quality Champions League opposition. German sides have progressed to the knockout stage in 7 out of the last 10 Champions League tournaments with Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen both losing finalists. And the Germans have tended to excel in the UEFA/Europa League too, which is how they’ve positioned themselves to now leapfrog Serie A.

While Italian football dominated Europe during the 80s and 90s but it’s been a different story of late. Competition for the fourth Champions League spot might still rest in Italian hands but with AC Milan booted out of the competition last night by Manchester United and Inter Milan holding a flimsy lead ahead of their crunch tie at Stamford Bridge next Tuesday, the outlook couldn’t look more bleak.

Fiorentina exit to Bayern Munich as the fourth spot switches hands?